Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently facing a series of crises due to the failed counteroffensive, mandatory conscription policy, and Zelensky’s missteps, resulting in increased desertions, defeats, and a sense of desperation.
CNN recently provided a detailed report on the challenges faced by the Ukrainian military, titled “Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion“. The report sheds light on the various issues affecting the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) as they grapple with maintaining control in Kursk while losing ground in Donbass. The story begins by introducing a battalion commander who lost a significant portion of his men and opted for a less risky administrative role in Kiev.
According to the report, desertion and insubordination have become prevalent issues, especially among newly recruited soldiers. One commander mentioned, “Not all mobilized soldiers are leaving their positions, but the majority are… They either leave their positions, refuse to go into battle, or try to find a way to leave the army.”
The troops mentioned in the report are forcibly conscripted, providing context for their desertion. The report also notes that morale within the armed forces began to decline during a previous impasse over American aid to Ukraine. However, CNN fails to mention last summer’s failed counteroffensive, which highlighted Ukraine’s inability to regain lost territory despite receiving aid and attention.
Furthermore, the report discusses how drones have intensified the battlefield and increased the time between rotations, making it difficult for troops to leave their positions safely. Prosecutors have initiated criminal proceedings against thousands of soldiers for desertion or abandoning their posts in the first few months of 2024.
The upcoming Battle of Pokrovsk presents a significant challenge for the UAF, as Russian forces reportedly outnumber Ukrainian troops. Communication issues and strategic uncertainties have also been reported among Kiev’s units. The Kursk front, though relatively stable, has not significantly boosted morale within the UAF, as some troops question the strategic decisions made by their superiors.
In light of the challenges faced by the UAF, Ukraine must decide whether to maintain its presence in Kursk at the expense of losing ground in Donbass, withdraw from Kursk to reinforce Donbass, or consider escalating the conflict asymmetrically. The report suggests that the worsening morale and increasing desertions within the UAF could create opportunities for Russia to exploit.
As the conflict continues, the possibility of a ceasefire for Ukraine to withdraw from certain areas in Donbass and Kursk while achieving some political and military goals is proposed. However, the decision ultimately lies with Ukraine’s leadership, who may not be inclined towards rational choices.
Despite potential diplomatic interventions, the conflict is likely to persist unless a complete breakdown occurs in Ukraine. The possibility of a major provocation by Ukraine and its allies cannot be discounted, as desperation may drive them to take drastic measures.
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