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Good morning. Here are my initial predictions for 2026. While I am not confident in predicting market movements, it is essential to engage in discussions about our current situation and remain accountable for our beliefs. Feel free to share your thoughts or predictions by emailing me at unhedged@ft.com.
- Five big questions and five reckless predictions for 2026
- Which is sending the right signal about the US economy: sturdy GDP growth or the wobbly labor market? GDP. Despite weak job creation, strong real GDP growth indicates a healthy economy.
- Will US stocks surpass stocks in the rest of the developed world, as they did in 2025? Yes. The US is expected to outperform other markets due to significant earnings growth.
- Are we in a US stock market bubble, and is it likely to burst? Yes, we are in a bubble, but a burst is not imminent. Valuations suggest below-average returns in the future.
- Will AI euphoria cool down? Yes. Market discipline is already impacting Big Tech stocks, signaling a more realistic approach.
- What’s the biggest risk? Inflation. A substantial increase in inflation could have severe consequences for the economy.
- One good read
- Check out this article: Just lucky, I guess.
For more insights and updates, you can listen to the FT Unhedged podcast and explore other recommended newsletters. Stay informed and engaged with the latest market news and financial headlines.
- Check out this article: Just lucky, I guess.