Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data offers a week-to-week perspective, influenced by holidays and short-term fluctuations like the significant winter storm in January. Despite the temporary slowdown caused by the storm, we saw year-over-year growth at the beginning of the year.
Two weeks ago, we had a positive week-to-week data print, and this week we are back to year-over-year growth. Over the past few years, our weekly pending home sales data has generally been positive with mortgage rates around 6%.
Weekly pending sales for the last two years:
- 2026: 59,283
- 2025: 56,693
Mortgage purchase application data
Purchase application data provides a forward-looking indicator, with growth leading sales approximately 30-90 days ahead. Last week, we saw an 8% year-over-year growth in this data line.
Consistent positive weekly growth for at least 12-14 weeks, along with year-over-year growth, indicates a strong trend. In 2026, we have seen positive year-over-year growth every week.
Chart below shows the seasonal flow of weekly data for 2026:
- 2 positive week-over-week results
- 3 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 3 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 6 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, projected ranges for:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
Despite significant economic data and headlines, there was minimal movement in the 10-year yield or mortgage rates last week.
After recent events, rates ended the week lower at 6.04%, according to Mortgage News Daily, with a weekend rate of 6.26% from Polly’s mortgage rate lock data.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads continue to be a positive factor for housing in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility and approaching normal levels.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%, with last week’s spreads closing at 1.94%.
If spreads matched 2023 peak levels, mortgage rates would be 1.20 percentage points higher. With spreads returning to normal, mortgage pricing can stay lower for longer, with only a slight improvement left in spreads.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory has seen growth recently, typical of the rise observed during the spring selling season. While the growth rate has slowed since the drop in rates in June 2025, inventory remains at multiyear highs, helping to stabilize pricing.
We have transitioned from 33% year-over-year growth to 9.38% last week.
- Weekly inventory change (Feb. 13-Feb. 20): Inventory rose from 690,547 to 700,259
- Same week last year (Feb. 14-Feb. 21): Inventory rose from 637,984 to 640,221
New listings data
New listings data, like weekly pending home sales, is showing year-over-year growth once again. This positive sign indicates that both home sellers and buyers are back in the market.
During peak periods, new listings data is expected to range between 80,000 and 100,000 per week. Last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 60,428
- 2025: 53,861
Price-cut percentage
Approximately one-third of homes undergo price reductions before selling, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and inventory rise, the percentage of price cuts typically increases.
However, with rates at multiyear lows, negative year-over-year price-cut percentage data is now visible. This trend is expected as demand picks up slightly and inventory growth slows.
Last week’s price-cut percentage is 1% lower than the same time last year.
The week ahead: Fed speeches, bond auctions, and possible tariff market response
This week brings significant economic data and interesting storylines, including big bond auctions and the market’s response to Trump’s recent tariff news. Fed speeches, the PPI inflation report, and home price index reports are on the agenda, along with the regular jobless claims data.
Jobless claims data, initially impacted by the recent snowstorms, has started to improve as the effects of the snow melt away from the data pool. Another intriguing week lies ahead for the housing market!