It’s only day four of the US-Israeli ‘Operation Epic Fury’ and there are already talks of a ground war and insurgency in Iran. The White House is claiming it doesn’t plan to send US troops on the ground, but is not ruling it out, while also stating the US wants regime change in Tehran and the dismantling of the Islamic Republic.
However, as seen in the Iraq conflict, an air war alone may not be sufficient to achieve regime change and state dismantling, necessitating a ground operation. President Trump is considering supporting groups in Iran willing to take up arms against the regime as part of a new plan.
This strategy could lead to ethno-sectarian violence and the formation of death squads, especially if Kurdish groups are involved. The potential involvement of Sunni minority populations in Iran raises concerns about the US backing insurgent groups, similar to its actions in Syria.
The People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) is a likely contender for US support, given its history of opposition to the Iranian government. However, Trump has acknowledged the challenges of identifying viable allies in Iran, with many potential groups already eliminated.
Overall, the situation in Iran remains highly volatile, with the possibility of escalating violence and instability. The US and its allies must carefully consider their actions and alliances to avoid further destabilizing the region.