Weekly pending sales
Pending home sales data offers a week-to-week perspective, although results may be impacted by holidays and short-term fluctuations, such as severe weather events. Year-over-year growth was initially positive at the beginning of the year, but was hindered by a major snowstorm in January.
After the snow data has cleared, we have observed three consecutive weeks of year-over-year growth, which is expected given that mortgage rates have remained below 6.25% throughout the year.
Weekly pending sales figures for the past two years:
- 2026: 66,127
- 2025: 63,508
Mortgage purchase application data
Purchase application data serves as a forward-looking indicator, with growth in this area leading to sales approximately 30-90 days later. Last week, we observed a 10% year-over-year growth with a 6.1% week-to-week increase.
Consistent positive weekly growth over a span of 12-14 weeks, combined with year-over-year growth, indicates a strong trend. In 2026, every week has shown positive year-over-year growth. The last three weeks have averaged a 10% year-over-year growth, potentially leading to a significant increase in home sales compared to the previous year.
Chart displaying 2026 data:
- 3 positive week-over-week prints
- 4 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 5 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 8 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, anticipated ranges included:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
Recent events, such as a surge in oil prices, have not significantly impacted mortgage rates. The 10-year yield has remained relatively stable, influenced by factors like the Iran conflict and economic data releases.
Last week’s rates closed at 6.14%, with Polly’s mortgage rate lock data reflecting a similar rate.
Rates ended the week at 6.14%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and Polly’s mortgage rate lock data shows a weekend rate of 6.14%.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads continue to support a positive outlook for the housing market in 2026, reducing mortgage rate volatility and approaching normal levels.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.94%.
If spreads were to reach peak levels seen in 2023, mortgage rates would be significantly higher. However, with spreads returning to normal, mortgage pricing can remain relatively low for an extended period.
There is limited room for improvement in spreads, with potential for better conditions later in the year.
Weekly housing inventory data
Housing inventory experienced a decline last week, contrasting with expectations of a seasonal increase. While inventory levels are healthier than in previous years, a lack of growth in inventory could lead to negative year-over-year data in the coming months.
Year-over-year growth in inventory has decreased from 33% to 6.91%.
- Weekly inventory change (Feb. 27-March 6): Inventory fell from 690,357 to 686,879
- Same week last year (Feb. 28-March 7): Inventory rose from 639,357 to 642,479
New listings data
New listings data showed a week-to-week increase last week, although year-over-year figures remain lower. Expectations are for new listings to reach 80,000-100,000 per week during peak seasons, reflecting a trend observed from 2013-2019.
Last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 61,710
- 2025: 63,870
Price-cut percentage
Price reductions are a common occurrence in the housing market, with about one-third of homes undergoing price cuts before selling. Current trends indicate a decrease in year-over-year price-cut percentages due to increased demand and slower inventory growth.
Last week’s price-cut percentage was 1.25% lower compared to the same time last year.
Price-cut percentage for last week:
The week ahead: Iran, inflation, existing home sales, and housing starts
The ongoing Iranian conflict continues to be a significant factor affecting economic data and market conditions. As oil prices rise, potential impacts on gas prices, inflation, and overall economic stability are closely monitored.
This week’s existing home sales report will be the last to include snow-related impacts, providing insights into the market’s current state. It is essential to analyze the data accurately and understand the underlying trends to make informed decisions.