Bitcoin [BTC] has seen a 5.44% increase over the past thirty days, but its bullish momentum has slowed down in the last week. The price has been fluctuating between the $69k-$71k levels, showing signs of accumulation but also indicating that holders are selling into short-term strength.
In the short term, weakened spot ETF flows suggest a decrease in bullish sentiment towards BTC. From March 18th to the 20th, Farside Investors reported a $305.7 million outflow.
AMBCrypto highlighted the ETF outflows and suggested that this could lead to a pullback to the $65k support level. While this hasn’t occurred yet, it remains a possibility that swing traders should be prepared for.
Despite the ETF capital outflows, there are signs of accumulation. A CryptoQuant analyst noted that Bitcoin netflow (30-day Moving Average) from Binance was dropping below zero.
Negative netflows indicate accumulation, and Bitcoin has rallied from $65k to $74k as a result. While the equities market has seen losses, exchange outflows reflect demand that has kept prices stable around the $70k mark.
Exploring the potential for an ‘imminent flush’
Another crypto analyst mentioned that the binary CDD was the “deadliest data point.” This metric measures whether long-term holders’ coin movements are higher or lower than average.
Readings around 1 indicate that holders are preparing to sell. By smoothing the metric using the 7SMA, the analyst observed a reading of 0 for the third time in four months.
This could set the stage for a significant price correction. The zero reading suggests that veteran holders are not selling, creating an illiquid environment that may lead to a price flush.
AMBCrypto looked at the accumulation trend score metric to determine if larger entities were hoarding or selling BTC. Currently, the trend score stands at 0.094.
Values closer to zero suggest that larger entities are distributing BTC, making it challenging for bullish momentum to continue in the coming weeks.
Overall, the analyzed metrics present mixed signals. While a sustained push higher is possible in the short term, long-term investors should be cautious as the rally may not be driven by aggressive spot demand.
Concluding Thoughts
- Recent exchange outflows indicate Bitcoin accumulation, contributing to the March rally.
- Other metrics suggest that holders are distributing into short-term BTC strength, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rally.
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