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Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) suggests that altcoins are mirroring the same structural pattern that preceded the 2021 “altseason,” this time regarding the altcoin market cap excluding Ethereum and stablecoins versus Bitcoin (referred to as “Total3/BTC”). In a recent video, he argues that a confluence of indicators across weekly and monthly timeframes, on both linear and logarithmic scales, indicates a Wyckoff-style bottoming process leading to a “spring” and range reclaim. He notes that momentum and breadth indicators are aligning similarly to how they did before the 2021 surge.
Altcoins Prepare for Significant Growth
Kevin frames the current situation as a direct parallel to the previous cycle’s shift from despair to acceleration, emphasizing that the structural setup, not headlines, preceded the movement both then and now. He highlights historical setups on the weekly and monthly timeframes, showing that the weekly linear chart of Total3/BTC retraced into an accumulation range, broke support in a capitulation-style flush, and reclaimed the range—a phase he refers to as a “spring” that preceded the 2021 alt season. He argues that this sequence closely resembles the base from 2018-2020, which eventually led to the explosive growth in 2021 after the market had given up on altcoins.
Kevin emphasizes that this setup is dependent on macro factors that allow for the repricing of risk. He mentions the need for lower or stable inflation, a softening labor market without a crash, and softening growth without a significant downturn. These conditions, in his view, would enable the Federal Reserve to shift the risk balance towards employment, lower the two-year yield, increase rate-cut expectations, and potentially halt quantitative tightening. With a lot of macro data expected in the next few weeks and the FOMC meeting on September 17, he sees Q4 as a crucial period. “Everything is aligning right now… we just need that final push,” he concludes.
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On the weekly linear timeframe, Kevin points to indicators showing symmetry with the 2021 surge. He notes a fresh weekly buy signal on Market Cipher and similarities in “money flow” profiles compared to the previous cycle. He also mentions that various indicators are aligning similarly to the 2021 scenario, suggesting a potential push towards higher levels of upside momentum.
He then analyzes the monthly log chart of Total3/BTC, identifying an eight-year support band in the 0.27 to 0.24 range, a long downtrend resistance meeting a higher low structure, and a divergent momentum backdrop. He highlights bullish divergences in the monthly momentum waves and notes that the monthly RSI is breaking out of a multi-year downtrend channel for the first time since 2021.
Kevin places significant importance on a double-bottom pattern in his monthly L-MACD analysis, indicating a potential game-changing moment if the pattern continues. He notes similarities in the momentum indicators and price action between the current period and the lead-up to the 2021 altcoin surge.
Is Crypto Set for its Biggest Run Yet?
The overarching theme is that breadth is starting to shift at a structural level while momentum indicators are transitioning from negative to positive across various timeframes. Kevin highlights the unprecedented alignment in linear weekly and log monthly views, suggesting a potential acceleration in altcoin market cap growth compared to Bitcoin. Although his analysis focuses on Total3/BTC, he relates it to his earlier Ethereum predictions from May/June and the subsequent rally in ETH. He sees the altcoin rotation as a continuation of the Ethereum setup before its surge against Bitcoin.
Despite the technical indicators aligning, Kevin remains cautious about timelines and seasonality. He notes that September is typically weak and that the strong phase of any rotation will likely depend on macro confirmation heading into Q4. He emphasizes the need to watch for Total3 as a key indicator of potential market movements.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com