Americans go to the polls

Hello and welcome to the working week.

On Tuesday, Americans will finally put paid to months of speculation when they head to the ballot box. Financial Times journalists have painstakingly chronicled every twist and turn over this marathon election cycle. Yet the polls have remained completely deadlocked.

I won’t weigh in on the debate about whether this is the most consequential American election ever. But what is certainly true is that Nato member states, Ukraine, China, the Middle East and Russia will all have their eyes fixed on the US as the results pour in. Expect dispatches from across the globe as the world digests the state of play. The FT’s first-class data journalism team will also be working around the clock to give you a forensic breakdown of the numbers as the count ticks up over Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

Dovetailing with the election is the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting on Thursday this week. Economists are betting on a quarter-point cut, as the US closes in on its 2 per cent inflation target. But the shadow of the election looms. The Fed knows that if the White House changes tack with respect to tariffs, for example, it will risk imperilling the progress it has made in curbing inflation if it doesn’t act.

Investors will be watching the central bank closely. Depending on who wins Tuesday’s vote, they might have to revise their predictions on the pace and size of rate cuts going forward.

Though US news will dwarf that of the UK, the Bank of England will convene on Thursday. Markets have digested last week’s Budget, and though taxes were increased to record highs, the trajectory of monetary policy is unlikely to change all that much, according to economics commentator Chris Giles. Analysts are predicting a quarter-point cut to the policy rate.

There are plenty of company reports on the horizon. Carmakers BMW, Toyota and Nissan will post their earnings this week, with investors keenly watching the effect of stalling electric vehicle sales on the sector. Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk’s earnings are also hotly anticipated, as analysts weigh the impact of the company’s stiffening competition.

One more thing . . . 

Last month, a previously undiscovered Chopin waltz was found at a library vault in New York. I intend to dust off my keyboard and attempt to play it this week. I hear myriad tales from adults who used to play musical instruments as children, but then stopped when school or work or parenthood got in the way. This touching piece from the FT archive is an encouraging reminder of the benefits of picking your instrument back up — and the life lessons doing so can teach you.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at harvey.nriapia@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• EU: HCOB Manufacturing PMI data released for October

• Results: BioNTech Q3, Ryanair Holdings HY

Tuesday

• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision

• China: Caixin Services PMI data for October

• Results: Adecco Group Q3, Asos FY, Associated British Foods annual results, Bouygues Q3, Deutsche Post (DHL Group) Q3, Hugo Boss Q3, Nintendo Q2 2025, Ørsted Q3, Saudi Aramco Q3, Schaeffler Q3, Thomson Reuters Q3, Zalando Q3

Wednesday

• Results: BMW Q3, Commerzbank Q3, CVS Health Q3, Gilead Sciences Q3, Henkel AG & Co Q3, Hensoldt Q3, JFE Holdings HY, Marks and Spencer HY, Novo Nordisk Q3, Pandora Q3, Puma Q3, Qualcomm Q4, Toyota Q2

Thursday

• UK: Bank of England interest rate decision

• US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision

• EU: Retail sales released for September

• Results: Air France-KLM Q3, Banca Generali Q3, BT HY, DBS Q3, Euronav Q3, Halliburton Q3, Hershey Q3, Moderna Q3, Nippon Steel Q2, Nissan Q2, Rheinmetall AG Q3, Sainsbury’s HY, Statkraft Q3, Wizz Air HY, WK Kellogg Q3

Friday

• US: Michigan consumer sentiment index for November

• Canada: Unemployment rate figures for October

• Results: IAG Q3, Sony Group Corp Q2 2025

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• South Korea: South Korean and EU officials are to hold their first strategic dialogue in Seoul to discuss Russia’s deployment of North Korean troops

• UAE: Annual energy industry event ADIPEC begins with Opec’s secretary-general and executives from top oil and gas companies in attendance

• China: The National People’s Congress Standing Committee will begin its weeklong meeting in which it is expected to issue additional debt to revive the country’s flagging economy

Tuesday

• US: Presidential election

• EU: Finance ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss finance for Ukraine, legislation on VAT, the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the climate

• UK: Guy Fawkes Day

Wednesday

Thursday

• EU: ECB’s Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel and Frank Elderson give speeches; European political community to meet in Budapest

• US: Federal Open Market Committee holds press conference

Friday

Saturday

Sunday