Standard Chartered, the multinational banking giant, is making headlines today after significantly adjusting its price forecast for Bitcoin. The bank has cut its 2025 projection in half, reflecting the recent struggles of BTC on the price charts following a strong performance in the final quarter of 2024.
This revision is a response to Bitcoin’s current trading near $90,000 and being stuck in a tight trading band. Analysts are noting a scarcity of catalysts to push the price higher.
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Forecast
The bank now predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, a significant reduction from its previous target of $200,000. The long-term forecast of $500,000 has also been delayed to 2030 from 2028.
This adjustment suggests a cautious approach by analysts in evaluating BTC’s short and long-term targets.
Geoffrey Kendrick, a Standard Chartered analyst, attributes the downward revision to a reassessment of expected demand sources that were anticipated to drive Bitcoin to new highs.
Kendrick identified two main factors contributing to the recalibration:
1. Corporate treasury exhaustion: The wave of corporate Bitcoin accumulation in 2024, led by companies like Strategy, has slowed down. This buying spree previously supported Bitcoin’s price but has now diminished.
2. Deceleration in ETF inflows: The adoption of Spot Bitcoin ETFs has been slower than projected, resulting in lower capital inflows into these vehicles than initially anticipated.
These factors indicate a shift in the structural demand for Bitcoin, leading analysts to revise their expectations for price momentum.
Insights from Data Analysis
Data shows a significant slowdown in ETF inflows, with quarterly figures now standing at around 50,000 coins. This is a sharp decline from the peak of nearly 450,000 BTC per quarter in late 2024.
Kendrick’s analysis suggests that future price appreciation will heavily rely on ETF-related buying.
Another factor influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory is the potential impact of Federal Reserve policy changes.
While investors expect a near-term interest rate reduction, the Fed’s forward guidance on monetary policy for the coming year will be crucial.
Moving Away from Traditional Models
Standard Chartered’s new forecast rejects the historic “halving cycle” models that have been commonly used for Bitcoin price analysis. Analysts now see ETF buying as the primary driver of Bitcoin’s future price movements.
Matthew Sigel stated, “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver.”
Kendrick believes that the traditional boom-and-bust patterns in the crypto market may no longer apply as the market matures.
Key Takeaways
- The bank now emphasizes ETF inflows over corporate treasuries as the main driver of Bitcoin’s future price movements.
- Despite the revised forecast, Standard Chartered remains skeptical of the classic halving-cycle model for Bitcoin’s price predictions.