- Bitcoin rebounded by 11% to reach $83,500, defying macroeconomic turmoil and bond market volatility
- Whales and long-term holders have absorbed market pressure, acquiring 100k BTC since March
Less than two weeks after Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the U.S market remains highly volatile. The bond market has crashed, and Treasury yields saw their biggest weekly jump since 2001. Trump’s trade war seems to have backfired, leading to a 90-day pause that followed.
Despite the broader market struggles, Bitcoin has reclaimed its key resistance zones, driven by big money entering the cycle. Large wallets holding 1k-10k BTC have acquired 100k BTC since March.
Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s future, speculating on a parabolic run and its potential as an emerging “safe haven.” However, caution is advised as the market may face challenges if large holders decide to exit in a volatile environment.
Bitcoin’s Resilience Against Market Expectations
Examining the current state of the U.S. economy reveals its impact on Bitcoin. The bond market and Treasury yields, which usually do not move in tandem, have shown significant volatility.
On April 9, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged by approximately 10bps, surpassing the 4.5% mark – its highest level since mid-February.
Source: Trading Economics
Looking ahead to 2025, a substantial portion of U.S. debt is set to mature, necessitating refinancing. Reports suggest that between $7 trillion and $9.2 trillion will require refinancing throughout the year.
The recent bond market crash, driven by foreign sell-offs, has pushed yields higher, increasing the government’s borrowing costs. This development has diminished the likelihood of near-term rate cuts and undermined the U.S. dollar’s status as a safe haven.
Despite a 90-day tariff pause announced by the White House, macroeconomic uncertainty persists, particularly in the escalating U.S.-China trade conflict.
Amid economic turbulence, Bitcoin has defied market sell-offs, staging a strong reversal after a week of heavy selling pressure. The cryptocurrency rallied by nearly 11% to reclaim $83,500.
Influx of Institutional Investment
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that whales have played a crucial role in absorbing recent market pressure. Wallets holding between 1k and 10k BTC have acquired 100k BTC since March.
Long-term holders (LTHs) now hold 13.60 million BTC, marking a 420k BTC increase in their holdings over the same period.
Source: Glassnode
With Bitcoin’s current market price at $83,500, the implied average acquisition price for LTHs stands at approximately $49,702.38.
While the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for LTHs is at 0.68, indicating unrealized profits of 68% on average, the NUPL has not yet reached the euphoria phase typically seen at market tops.
However, the broader macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain. Similar to Ethereum’s experience of massive capitulation from LTHs post-trade-driven pump, Bitcoin could face similar pressures.
As the 90-day tariff pause offers temporary relief, the looming end of this period could reignite volatility. The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict continues to weigh on the market, necessitating a cautious approach despite Bitcoin’s current resilience.