Global economy takes centre stage

Hello and welcome to the working week.

I’m not sure anyone has ever asked what US President Donald Trump thinks about the Bill Clinton era White House line that “it’s the economy, stupid”. But this week we’re going to get a fair degree of feedback on what the current White House occupant’s trade brinkmanship is doing to the global economy.

We start the week with the OECD’s take on events in its Interim Economic Outlook Report, published on Monday. GDP growth will be a key part of the story.

Inflation and the battle to tame it will take up much of the week’s agenda, with a clutch of significant central banks deciding what to do with interest rates. The US Federal Reserve is likely to announce a 25 basis point decrease on Wednesday, following last week’s better than expected inflation figure. So good was the news that futures markets are pricing in another rate cut this year with about 85 per cent chance of a third.

However, the Fed is walking a tightrope as it attempts to reduce inflation without triggering a recession, amid intensifying fears that Trump’s aggressive tariff skirmishes are undermining American economic growth.

It’s a different story for the UK. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will most likely hold rates at 4.5 per cent at its meeting as signs of a rebound in inflation outweigh the unexpected contraction in GDP in January, recorded last week. The BoE had already cut its economic growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to 0.1 per cent, from the 0.4 per cent expected in November. Observers expect the central bank is waiting to see the impact of the rise in employers’ national insurance contributions that are about to come into force. Thursday will also see the publication of UK unemployment figures.

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, but most likely not when it makes its latest announcement on Wednesday. The country’s most recent GDP growth figure signalled an economy in fair shape despite the difficult adjustments following the BoJ’s move last year to “normalise” monetary policy and begin a cycle of interest rate rises.

The big corporate event of the week will be chipmaker Nvidia’s GTC conference starting on Monday in San Jose, California, nicknamed “AI Woodstock” by a group of Bank of America analysts. Practically everyone in the semiconductor and AI space will be there, including most of the big US tech companies and their Chinese competitors. It is a chance for Nvidia to showcase on the conference floor its vast partner network — a whole economy that has sprung up around the company.

The company’s co-founder and chief executive Jensen Huang gives his keynote address on Tuesday morning local time, attracting folks who might not even understand what he’s talking about but just want to see him. Analysts expect Huang to speak about Nvidia’s new Rubin AI chip, a more powerful “ultra” version of the company’s Blackwell chip, which sold about $11bn of units since its launch last year, as well as more on AI and robots, which he made a big deal out of at his keynote at the CES conference in Las Vegas in January.

There is a steady flow, rather than a rush, of other economic and corporate news over the coming days. There will no doubt be much discussion about what gets added and removed from the basket of goods to decide the UK inflation figure. The cost of living will be a theme elsewhere with producer price index and consumer price index updates from Germany, Japan and Canada.

One item that will continue to hog headlines without a specific agenda this week will be Russia’s war in Ukraine. Looking further ahead, the FT will be holding a subscriber webinar on March 27 from 1-2pm GMT, analysing developments in the war as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces mounting pressure, US support wanes and Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys a freer hand amid the Trump presidency. Register for free to submit your question to the panel.

One more thing . . . 

The International Olympic Committee gathers in Greece this week, picking a new chair on Thursday from a list of seven candidates. But the big question, according to the FT’s Big Read team, is whether the global sporting contest even has a future.

What does your more immediate future hold? As ever, email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Nvidia GTC AI, a five-day conference, begins

• OECD Interim Economic Outlook Report on the near-term prospects for the global economy

• UK: Make UK/BDO Manufacturing Outlook Survey and Economic Forecasts. Also, the March Rightmove House Index.

• Results: F&C Investment Trust FY, Marshalls FY, Phoenix Group FY

Tuesday

• Benjamin Smith, chief executive of Air France-KLM, and his counterpart at Air France, Anne Rigail, present the French national carrier’s new La Premiere travel experience in Paris

• Lip-Bu Tan takes up the role of chief executive at US chipmaker Intel

• Canada: February consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• UK: annual update of the CPI basket of goods and services, including owner occupiers’ housing costs weights. Also, UK Finance card spending statistics

• Results: Close Brothers HY, Computacenter FY, Continental FY, Eni FY, H&T Group FY, Springer Nature FY, SThree Q1 trading update, Trustpilot FY, Yu Group FY

Wednesday

• Brazil: Banco Central do Brasil interest rate decision announcement

• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate announcement

• US: Federal Reserve interest rate announcement, plus economic projections

• Results: Essentra FY, General Mills Q3, M&G FY, Prudential FY, Softcat HY, Swatch FY, Tencent Q4

Thursday

• Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem gives a speech at the Calgary Economic Development event

• Australia: February labour force figures, including the unemployment rate

• China: People’s Loan Rate announcement

• EU: European Central Bank Economic Bulletin

• Germany: February producer price index (PPI) inflation rate figures for industrial products

• Japan: Vernal Equinox Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: Bank of England’s interest rate decision, released alongside the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting. Also, March labour market figures

• Results: Accenture Q2, Bloomsbury Publishing trading update, CK Hutchison Holdings FY, Darden Restaurants Q3, FedEx Q3, Investec pre-close trading update, James Fisher & Sons FY, Lloyd’s of London FY, Micron Technology Q2, Nike Q3, RTL FY, RWE FY, Wickes FY

Friday

• Germany: February PPI inflation rate data for services

• Japan: February CPI inflation rate figures

• UK: February public sector finances data

• Results: Carnival Q1, JD Wetherspoon HY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• St Patrick’s Day, commemorated at events around the world on the feast day of the patron saint of Ireland

• India: The Raisina Dialogue, a three-day annual conference on geopolitics and geoeconomics, bringing together leaders from politics, business and the media, begins in New Delhi

• UK: National Audit Office publishes a report on the Home Office’s approach to managing the skilled worker immigration route, following reports of changes to the programme creating a shift in hiring

• US: World Bank Global Digital Summit begins in Washington, running until Thursday. This year’s theme is Digital Pathways for All

Tuesday

• 60th anniversary of USSR cosmonaut Alexei Leonov becoming the first man to walk in space, floating outside his Voskhod 2 capsule for more than 10 minutes

• Belgium: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets World Trade Organization director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Brussels

Wednesday

• Greece: 144th International Olympic Committee Session begins at the Romanos Resort in Costa Navarino. The three-day meeting will include the election (on Thursday) of the new IOC president, selected from Britain’s Lord Sebastian Coe, Prince Faisal bin Hussein of Jordan, France’s David Lappartient, Sweden’s Johan Eliasch, Juan Antonio Samaranch of Spain, Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry and Morinari Watanabe of Japan

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