The VIX continues to hold above 20… despite stocks making gains…
Source: Bloomberg
The short-term volatility market is bracing for movement around tomorrow’s retail sales report (expected to be strong according to BofA), followed by a period of calm before the storm of the election results and the FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
Regarding the election, over the past 12 days, the market has shown a strong belief in a Trump victory, as noted by Druckenmiller in a recent Bloomberg interview.
“You can see this sentiment reflected in bank stocks and crypto assets.”
Source: Bloomberg
Druckenmiller also expressed skepticism about Democrats gaining control of Congress, even in the event of a Harris presidency.
In the event of a Democratic sweep, he warned that equities could face challenges for several months.
He also indicated that “a Republican sweep is more likely than a Trump presidency with a Democrat-controlled Congress.”
Following the Trump-Harris debate, stocks have shifted in favor of a Trump victory (reaching new highs today)…
Source: Bloomberg
On this day, Small Caps once again outperformed (amid a surge in short positions and strength in financials). The Nasdaq closed the day unchanged (weighed down by concerns about ASML)…
Another day, another surge in short positions…
Source: Bloomberg
The Nasdaq once again underperformed the Russell 2000, pushing the ratio to the lower end of its channel from the past year…
Source: Bloomberg
Today, Morgan Stanley saw a significant increase in earnings, catching up to Wells Fargo. Citi remains the top underperformer…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields saw a slight decline across the board today, particularly in the long-term sector (notably flattening the yield curve)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10-year yield dropped to 4.00% and found support at that level today…
Source: Bloomberg
Expectations for a rate cut in 2025 are rising once again (back to pre-payrolls levels), while 2024 expectations remain relatively hawkish…
Source: Bloomberg
Credit spreads remain remarkably tight, both in comparison to equity risk and historical trends…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continued to strengthen, reaching its highest level since the payrolls report on August 2nd…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the dollar’s strength, gold reached a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
This divergence between gold and the dollar is quite significant…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continues to surge (possibly in anticipation of a Trump victory?), surpassing $68,000 for the first time since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil prices remained steady today, with WTI just above $70.00 ahead of the API inventory report…
Source: Bloomberg
Lastly, US sovereign risk has risen to its highest level in a year…
Source: Bloomberg
What are the current concerns in the market?
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