Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb the country.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have all informed the US that they will not allow their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refueling and rescue operations, a senior US official told Middle East Eye. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. “They do not want to be drawn in,” the official said.
The Gulf states’ refusal is a setback for the Trump administration, which has hoped to use massive air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a show of force to pressure Tehran to return to the negotiating table on a nuclear deal. If Iran perceives that the US’s oil-rich Arab allies are not in favor of strikes, it could strengthen their negotiating stance.
The Gulf states were more cooperative on the Houthi strikes, a former US official briefed on the matter told MEE without disclosing which Gulf countries the US used as a launchpad for recent strikes.
The former official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US was confident it had enough Gulf support, including for launching crucial recovery flights if any American aircraft were downed during those operations.
The Trump administration has been seeking the support of the Gulf states as it intensifies a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran. US defense and intelligence officials met with their Emirati and Saudi counterparts in March in Washington DC, around the time of the initial Houthi strikes.
In quick succession, the Trump administration approved long-stalled arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Doha received approval to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Riyadh secured weapon systems that convert unguided air to ground rockets into precision rockets.
Trump announced on Monday that he intends to visit Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states as early as May.
US turns to Diego Garcia base
The US has been relocating warplanes and cargo to Jordan and Gulf states at an increased rate since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel escalated into a regional conflict.
According to flight tracking data shared on X by open-source analysts, the number of US military cargo flights to the region has risen by 50 percent compared to previous peaks. In response to the Gulf states’ ban, the US has deployed B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the official said.
This is not the first time American war planners have utilized Diego Garcia’s strategic position as an alternative to Gulf air bases. During the late 1990s, when the US was bombing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Saudi Arabia imposed restrictions, the US used the Chagos Islands base as a launchpad.
Open-source satellite data provided by Planet Labs earlier this week showed three B-2 bombers at the US base. Other open-source accounts shared imagery suggesting at least five B-2 bombers were present at the base.
The Chagos Islands base is within 5,300 kilometers of Iran, well within the B-2 refueling range of approximately 11,000 kilometers. B-2s are capable of carrying 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs required to penetrate Iran’s deep underground nuclear sites, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Diego Garcia diminishes Iran’s ability to deter US actions.
Iran’s tit-for-tat warnings on Gulf
In October 2024, when Iran was anticipating Israeli retaliation following its second direct missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic cautioned Gulf states that it would bomb their oil facilities in response to an Israeli strike.
These carefully crafted tit-for-tat warnings enabled Iran to avoid an Israeli strike on their energy facilities at the time. However, if the US uses Diego Garcia to attack Iran, it could bypass the Gulf states’ airspace entirely, or at the very least, provide Gulf monarchs with some plausible deniability regarding their involvement in the strikes. This limits Iran’s options to deter American or Israeli strikes by threatening the Gulf.
Iran was suspected of being behind the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities. However, Iran and the Sunni Gulf monarchs have since reconciled their differences. The Telegraph reported on Monday that Iranian military commanders were being encouraged to launch preemptive strikes on Diego Garcia.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation For Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, said on X that while Tehran’s ballistic missiles’ range is publicly capped at 2,000 kilometers, it could reach the island by providing intermediate-range ballistic missiles to the Houthis, launching Shahed drones from ships, or using container-launched cruise missiles produced by Russia and China to strike from the Indian Ocean.
From Pacific to Middle East
Trump raised the possibility of a new conflict in the Middle East in an interview on Saturday, warning of “bombing the likes of which they (Iran) have never seen before” if Iran does not agree to a nuclear deal.
Trump is pushing for stringent demands on Iran’s nuclear program. National security advisor Mike Waltz recently stated that the US aims to see a “full dismantlement” of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
Iran, which asserts that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, has rejected this demand. The Trump administration’s demands also put the US on a collision course with Russia, with whom it is attempting to reset relations. Russia constructed Iran’s first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, and its state-run atomic energy giant Rosatom says it is in discussions to build more.
Regional diplomats and analysts are trying to decipher whether the US military buildup in the Middle East is intended to reinforce Trump’s threats or if the US is preparing for an attack. In addition to cargo flights, the US has dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Notably, the US has shifted the carrier Carl Vinson from the Pacific to the Middle East, despite heightened tensions around Taiwan.
The US currently has over 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The majority are stationed in the oil-rich Gulf states, where they are based at a series of strategic air and naval bases.
Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US conducts MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters operations from the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base hosts the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing.
Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base serves as the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also reportedly hosted some Israeli military officials, as previously reported by MEE, but it is unclear if those officials are still present in the country. The island nation of Bahrain accommodates around 9,000 US troops belonging to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet.
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