Purchase application data
With the recent uptick in mortgage rates, there was an expectation of a more substantial decline in both week-to-week and year-over-year data. However, the week-to-week decrease was only 5%, falling short of expectations. On the other hand, year-over-year growth has improved, rising from 10% to 13%, potentially due to the low starting point we are currently at.
This trend was anticipated if mortgage rates were on a downward trajectory from 6.64% to 6%, rather than remaining elevated as they have. The monthly purchase application report for new home sales market shows a 14% month-to-month growth and a 5.5% year-over-year growth.
Weekly data for 2025:
- 7 positive readings
- 4 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
Double-digit year-over-year growth in purchase applications was not expected unless mortgage rates were moving significantly lower. This unexpected data line, especially this week, has been the most surprising of the year. Last year, when mortgage rates rose, we saw mostly negative prints, with zero year-over-year growth weeks.
Weekly total pending sales
The latest weekly total pending contract data from Altos provides valuable insights into current housing demand trends. Typically, real growth in the housing demand data lines occurs when mortgage rates trend closer to 6%, but recent weeks have shown an increase in weekly sales data, resulting in positive year-over-year total pending sales data. The upcoming weeks may present more challenging comparisons for weekly sales data.
Weekly pending contracts for the last week over the past few years:
- 2025: 391,488
- 2024: 384,614
- 2023: 335,017
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2025 forecast, expectations were set for mortgage rates to range between 5.75% and 7.25% and the 10-year yield to fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%. The recent week showed promising developments for the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.35% in the absence of significant escalation headlines. This stability coincided with a decline in mortgage rates, indicating a less stressful bond market compared to previous weeks.
Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech last week led to a decline in bond yields, which rebounded towards 4.33% on Thursday, showcasing a well-functioning bond market.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads saw a significant increase after the Silicon Valley banking crisis in 2023, but started to improve in 2024. However, recent market volatility has widened the spread, potentially leading to higher mortgage rates. Historically, mortgage spreads should range between 1.60% and 1.80%.
Weekly housing inventory data
The highlight of the housing market in 2024 and 2025 has been the growth of inventory. Progress has been made towards reaching 2019 inventory levels, leading to a more balanced housing market. This week, there was further progress towards that goal.
- Weekly inventory change (April 11-April 18): Inventory rose from 702,434 to 719,400
- The same week last year (April 12-April 19): Inventory rose from 526,479 to 542,651
- The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- The inventory peak for 2024 was 739,434
- Active listings for the same week in 2015 were 1,060,699
New listings data
Recent new listings data has shown a positive trend, with an increase expected in the number of homes listed per week compared to previous years. The goal is to exceed 80,000 listings per week this year, reflecting a constructive trend in the market.
The national new listing data for last week over the previous several years:
- 2025: 77,004
- 2024: 68,409
- 2023: 59,269
Price-cut percentage
About one-third of homes typically experience price reductions in a year, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. The rise in price cuts this year compared to last suggests another year of negative real home price growth, influenced by current market conditions and mortgage rates.
The price cuts from previous weeks over the last several years:
- 2025: 35.5%
- 2024: 32%
- 2023: 30%
The week ahead: Will headlines trump economic data?
This week, several Federal Reserve presidents will speak, likely generating significant media attention. Additionally, discussions around Trump’s interest in replacing Powell may gain traction. Reports on new and existing home sales are expected, with service PMI reports and Michigan consumer sentiment data also to be released, providing insights into market indicators.
Explore the full archive of our weekly Housing Market Tracker articles here.