Weekly pending sales
Weekly pending sales data offers a valuable insight into the real estate market, showing trends from week to week. It is important to note that results can be influenced by holidays and short-term fluctuations. Over the past five weeks, our weekly pending sales data has shown positive growth. However, with mortgage rates on the rise, reaching a yearly high, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue.
Typically, it takes 30-60 days for weekly pending sales to reflect in actual sales data. Mortgage rates play a significant role in this data, with rates above 6.64% and especially over 7% having a notable impact. The optimal range for mortgage rates, based on historical data, has been under 6.25%.
Weekly pending sales for the past two years:
- 2026: 71,230
- 2025: 68,726
Mortgage purchase application data
Purchase application data serves as a forward-looking indicator for home sales, typically leading actual sales by 30-90 days. Last week, we observed a 12% year-over-year growth with a 1% week-to-week increase. However, there is a risk of a negative weekly print this week, especially following consecutive weeks of rising rates.
For this data line, sustained positive weekly growth over 12-14 weeks, alongside year-over-year growth, indicates a strong trend. In 2026, we have seen consistent year-over-year growth, with the week-to-week data also showing positivity, albeit easier to achieve with rates below 6.25%.
Overview of 2026 data:
- 5 positive week-over-week prints
- 4 negative week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year growth
- 10 weeks of positive year-over-year growth
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 forecast, the anticipated ranges for mortgage rates were between 5.75% and 6.75%, while the 10-year yield was expected to fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.60%. The recent escalation of the Iran conflict has led to the 10-year yield surpassing 4.31% for the first time since 2025, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards potential rate hikes.
This week is crucial as it sets the stage for the 10-year yield to reach 4.60%, the upper end of the forecast range. Further developments in the Iran conflict could drive bond yields higher and increase the likelihood of additional rate hikes.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads play a crucial role in stabilizing mortgage rate volatility and are currently at near-normal levels, supporting the housing market in 2026. Despite some fluctuations in spreads during periods of falling bond yields, the current conflict has exacerbated the situation.
While spreads remain positive, their deterioration is preventing rates from exceeding 7% again.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.97%, showing a slight deviation from the norm.
Comparing this week’s rates to the worst levels of spreads in the past three years, given the current 10-year yield:
- If we had the worst levels of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates would be 7.67% today, not 6.53%
- If we had the worst levels of 2024, mortgage rates would be 7.29% today.
- If we had the worst levels of 2025, mortgage rates would be 7.10% today.
Weekly housing inventory data
The seasonal increase in housing inventory should be underway, but the growth rate has slowed compared to last year’s peak levels. This may result in negative year-over-year prints in weekly inventory data, although levels are still favorable compared to previous years.
From a 33% year-over-year growth in inventory at the peak of 2025, we have seen a decline to 6.35% last week. Inventory growth typically picks up with higher rates, softening demand and increased new listings. While new listings data remains negative year over year, the start of the spring seasonal increase shows promise.
- Weekly inventory change (March 13-March 20): Inventory rose from 697,251 to 705,633
- Same week last year (March 14-March 21): Inventory rose from 655,625 to 668,155
New listings data
New listings data has shown some underperformance this year, with a slightly negative year-over-year growth rate. The goal is to achieve weekly new listings ranging between 80,000 and 100,000 during peak periods, similar to pre-2020 levels. During the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged much higher for several years.
Last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Price-cut percentage
Price reductions are common in the housing market, with about one-third of homes undergoing price cuts before selling. As mortgage rates and inventory levels increase, the percentage of price cuts also tends to rise.
While the 2026 price forecast initially indicated a negative 0.62% for the year, recent developments have impacted this prediction. Lower-than-expected mortgage rates and improved mortgage spreads have influenced the market dynamics. The ongoing Iran conflict has the potential to align with the initial forecast, particularly if rates continue to rise.
Last week’s price-cut percentage:
The week ahead: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran
The upcoming week’s focus remains on the Iran conflict, as it continues to shape market trends. With the recent increase in bond yields and the potential for rate hikes in 2026, the conflict’s impact on the economy and housing market is significant. The trajectory of the Iran conflict will likely define the outlook for the remainder of the year.