Are lower mortgage rates starting to impact housing inventory growth? Using a simple weekly growth model with Altos inventory data, we can see that when rates are high (over 7.25%), inventory should grow between 11,000-17,000 weekly. This has occurred six times this year, but not once last year, despite higher rates. However, with rates dropping below 7.25% recently, inventory growth hasn’t met the model. Nevertheless, the last month showed healthy inventory growth, as we approach the seasonal decline in active inventory.
Weekly housing inventory data
As we head towards the traditional seasonal decline in active inventory, we are returning to 2019 levels, which were the lowest in five decades before 2020. 2024 is showing positive inventory growth, with this week’s inventory increasing by 5,721.
- Weekly inventory change (Aug. 9-August 16): Inventory grew from 692,752 to 698,473
- The same week last year (Aug.11-Aug 18): Inventory rose from 492,903 to 497,361
- The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- The yearly inventory peak for 2024 is this week at 698,473
- For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,212,129
New listings data
New listings data has been a positive factor contributing to this year’s inventory growth. While not reaching the minimum target of 80,000 new listings during peak seasonal weeks, there has been growth. Although there was a slight slowdown in new listings this week compared to the previous week, 2024 still shows improvement over 2023.
Number of new listings for last week over the previous several years:
- 2024: 67,153
- 2023: 59,158
- 2022: 67,560