Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, October 16: A Little Higher

Mortgage interest rates are up today, but only by a little.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.35% APR, according to rates provided to BW by Zillow. This is three basis points higher than yesterday but six basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

In the coming days, the direction of mortgage rates will depend a lot on whether markets think the Fed will raise borrowing rates again later this month. For more on this, read our analysis below.

One more thing: While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

If you were hoping for rates to fall, we have bad news: One major entity in the housing market thinks that even higher rates are coming.

Fannie Mae releases a housing forecast each month that includes projections for the quarterly average 30-year mortgage rate. October’s report dropped earlier this week, with a predicted average rate of 7.4% for the fourth quarter of 2026 (which we’re currently in) and 7.5% for 2027.

Why would markets think rates will go up? One important factor is inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index, a major inflation report on Wednesday. It showed that inflation rose 3.7% last month, largely driven by rising fuel costs.

Raising the federal funds rate, which is the short-term borrowing rate the bankers set, is the Fed’s main tool for fighting inflation. Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, changes to the funds rate ripple out through the entire economy. So a rate hike from the Federal Reserve  — or even markets having relatively certainty that a hike is coming — can put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

In the hours following the report drop, futures traders initially revised their projections in favor of another rate hike on Oct. 28. Today, expectations are cooler, with traders now expecting that central bankers will probably vote to hold rates steady for now before hiking in December.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously expressed his wish that investors would interpret data themselves, instead of dissecting central bankers’ public statements for Easter eggs about how they’ll vote.

For now, markets are still pretty much hanging on their every word. Any time a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee publicly voices an opinion about inflation, it has the potential to shift mortgage rates.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.