It’s been a long week, and even mortgage rates are taking a beat today, holding steady with yesterday’s levels.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage remained at 7.05% APR, according to rates provided to BW by Zillow. This is unchanged from yesterday and four basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Mortgage rates are pegged to the yield on the 10-year Treasury, and longer-term bond yields are falling back a little. The bond market’s been unhappy with the Federal Reserve’s inaction on inflation, so the Fed hiking the funds rate to fight inflation is welcome news. When bond yields are more chill, mortgage rates are, too.
For more on the ramifications of Wednesday’s Fed meeting and what it could mean for mortgage rates, keep reading below the chart.
P.S.: While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates: September 17, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
A little bit of a side note, but for someone who has such conviction that the Fed’s decisions shouldn’t hang on any particular bits of data, chair Kevin Warsh’s opening remarks at the post-announcement press conference sure made it sound like that data was important.
But anyway.
The bigger news out of the September meeting wasn’t the rate hike that basically everyone expected, it was the potential for additional rate hikes on the way. The Fed released an updated Summary of Economic Projections, where the committee members all shared their anonymized predictions for major metrics. (Except for Warsh, who refuses to participate.)
One of the most closely watched is the “dot plot,” where each dot represents an estimate of the appropriate level for the federal funds rate — the overnight borrowing rate that the Fed adjusts — at the end of each year. Looking at the previous round of projections for 2026 versus the ones released Wednesday shows a pretty stark difference, and not just because they had to cram most of the dots into one row in September.
Federal Reserve Dot Plot: June vs. September
Each dot represents an individual estimate for where the federal funds rate should be at the end of 2026.
June predictions
September predictions
The yellow shading indicates the current level.
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections
Parsing Warsh’s words at the press conference also has folks thinking this isn’t a one-and-done rate hike. (I should also note that this is pretty much exactly what Warsh doesn’t want markets doing.
Warsh mentioned removing a “dose of accommodation” from the financial conditions, indicating a stronger economy. With the possibility of additional rate hikes, markets are anticipating a higher rate environment. While this may relieve some bond market stress, mortgage rates are unlikely to drop. Refinancing could be a good option if your current rate is significantly higher than today’s rates. Consider your goals and use tools like BW’s refinance calculator to estimate savings. There is no perfect time to start shopping for a home, as long as you can afford the mortgage at current rates. Focus on getting preapproved and understanding your budget. Locking in your rate can provide peace of mind, especially if your lender offers a float-down option to take advantage of lower rates. Rates can fluctuate frequently, so staying informed is key. If you are satisfied with the agreement you currently have, it is acceptable to finalize your commitment. Can you please rewrite the sentence for me?