If you’re currently receiving Social Security benefits, you can look forward to an increase in your monthly checks starting in 2025.
While the official announcement of the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025 will be made on October 10, early estimates suggest a 2.6 percent increase. This projection is based on data from the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
A 2.6 percent raise would raise the average monthly Social Security payment for retired workers from $1,918.28 (as of June 2024) to $1,968.15 in 2025, representing a $49.87 increase. Beneficiaries can expect to see this adjustment reflected in their January checks.
What to Expect for Your Social Security Benefits in 2025
Here’s a breakdown of the anticipated COLA increases for different categories of Social Security beneficiaries.
Projected COLA Increases for 2025
| Beneficiary Type | Average 2024 Payment (as of June) | Projected Monthly Increase for 2025 | Projected 2025 Payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Source: Social Security Monthly Statistical Snapshot, June 2024 | |||
| Retiree | $1,918.28 | $49.87 | $1,968.15 |
| Retired Couple (Both Receiving Benefits) | $3,836.56 | $99.75 | $3,936.31 |
| Worker with Disability | $1,537.70 | $39.98 | $1,577.68 |
| Widow(er) | $1,784.09 | $46.39 | $1,830.48 |
| Children of Deceased Workers | $1,105.32 | $28.73 | $1,134.05 |
Compared to the significant 8.7 percent increase in 2023, the expected 2.6 percent raise for 2025 aligns more closely with the average COLA of approximately 2.6 percent over the past two decades, as reported by the Senior Citizens League.
How Is the Social Security COLA Determined?
The Social Security Administration calculates the new COLA by comparing the CPI-W increase for the third quarter of the current year to the third quarter of the previous year. Early data from the Consumer Price Index for July and August, along with projections for September, are used to anticipate the upcoming COLA adjustment.
Social Security payments play a crucial role for millions of Americans, with an estimated 72.4 million individuals receiving some form of Social Security benefits as of June 2024.
While COLA estimates offer insight into next year’s adjustments, it’s important to consider additional factors. The standard Medicare Part B premium, which is typically deducted from beneficiaries’ payments, is expected to rise in 2025.
In its March report, the Medicare Trustees projected an increase of approximately $10.30 in the monthly Part B premium, from $174.70 in 2024 to $185 in 2025. A higher Part B premium translates to beneficiaries retaining less of the new COLA amount.
The official announcement regarding the 2025 Medicare Part B premium adjustment is expected before November.