UK’s long-awaited Budget Day arrives

Hello and happy Monday!

Are you part of the workforce? If you’re a British taxpayer, you’re about to discover the answer to this question — or at least chancellor Rachel Reeves’ interpretation — as Budget Day approaches.

The definition of workers is crucial because the Labour government promised not to increase taxes on such individuals, despite their plans for an additional £20 billion in annual investment spending. This leaves the wealthy as the likely target for tax hikes, although increasing taxes on them could have unintended consequences, as noted by Financial Times economics commentator Chris Giles.

While much has been hinted at regarding the spending plans, chancellors often keep some surprises up their sleeves. Will Reeves have a winning strategy to secure votes? Read the FT Budget coverage here.

Not to be outdone, the UK opposition Conservatives will reveal their new leader on Saturday, despite their defeat in the July general election. Party members have voted on the two candidates selected by Tory MPs: Kemi Badenoch, the favorite according to bookmakers, and Robert Jenrick. Read their profiles here.

For readers outside the UK, most of the headlines this week will likely originate from beyond the small island where I am writing this. However, the focus will shift back next week with the US presidential election.

This week is packed with earnings reports, with Big Tech exploring AI, Big Oil transitioning to a low-carbon future, and Big Pharma dealing with legal battles. Big Tech companies reporting this week — Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon — have contributed significantly to the S&P 500’s gains this year. As noted by the FT, this has forced US funds to sell shares to comply with tax regulations.

Although economic data is sparse this week, the US and EU will release their first estimates of third-quarter GDP, closely watched as the US presidential elections approach. The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with expectations leaning towards a rate increase in the near future.

One more thing . . . 

Thank you to everyone who shared their favorite music in honor of the UK’s National Album Day this month. My Spotify playlist is now overflowing with new tunes. Special thanks to the reader who recommended the latest album by Justin Adams and Mauro Durante, which has been on repeat for me this week and coincidentally reviewed by the FT’s David Honigmann.

Key economic and company reports

Here’s a comprehensive list of company reports and economic data to watch out for this week.

Monday

• New Zealand: Labour Day. Financial markets closed

• US: the 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington, featuring three days of speeches from industry leaders, academics, and government representatives

• Results: Brown & Brown Q3, Cadence Design Systems Q3, Ford Motor Company Q3, ON Semiconductor Q3, Philips Q3, SBA Communications Q3

Tuesday

• Turkey: Republic Day. Financial markets closed

• UK: British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index

• Results: Adidas 9M, Alphabet Q3, Anglo American H2 sustainability performance update, BP Q3, Caesars Entertainment Q3, Chipotle Mexican Grill Q3, Corning Q3, Clariant Q3, Electronic Arts Q2, Ferrovial 9M, HelloFresh Q3, HSBC Q3, Lufthansa Q3, McDonald’s Q3, Mondelez International Q3, NEC Q2, Novartis Q3, OMV Q3, PayPal Q3, Pearson 9M trading update, PetroChina Q3, Pfizer Q3, Phillips 66 Q3, Reddit Q3, Royal Caribbean Q3, RWS FY trading statement, Santander 9M, Shimano Q3, Snap Q3, Stanley Black & Decker Q3, Tenet Healthcare Q3, Visa Q4, YouGov FY

Wednesday

• EU: preliminary Q3 GDP estimate

• Germany: preliminary Q3 GDP estimate. Also, September labor market figures and October consumer price index (CPI) and harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• UK: 2019-24 consumer credit/debit card spending data

• US: preliminary Q3 GDP estimate

• Results: Airbus 9M, Amgen Q3, Aston Martin Lagonda Q3, AXA 9M, Bank of Ireland interim management statement, Booking Holdings Q3, Caterpillar Q3, CDW Q3, Computacenter Q3 trading update, eBay Q3, Eli Lilly Q3, Etsy Q3, Garmin Q3, Glencore Q3 production report, GSK Q3, Hess Q3, Hitachi Q2, Kraft Heinz Q3, Meta Q3, MetLife Q3, MGM Resorts International Q3, Microsoft Q1, Next Q3 trading statement, Smurfit Westrock Q3, Standard Chartered Q3, Starbucks Q4, Ubisoft Entertainment HY, UBS Q3, Volkswagen Q3

Thursday

• Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden gives the keynote speech at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Bank for International Settlements joint conference ‘Opportunities and challenges of emerging technologies in the financial ecosystem’

• Santander International Banking Conference at the Spanish bank’s Madrid headquarters. Speakers include De Nederlandsche Bank president Klaas Knot, European financial services commissioner Mairead McGuinness, and European Investment Bank president Nadia Calviño

• EU: European Central Bank economic bulletin

• EU: October Eurozone inflation rate data

• Germany: September retail sales figures

• Japan: interest rate announcement

• Singapore: Deepavali. Financial markets closed

• Results: Allstate Q3, Amazon.com Q3, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q3, Apple Q4, BNP Paribas Q3, Bristol Myers Squibb Q3, Cigna Q3, Comcast Q3, ConocoPhillips Q3, Fujitsu HY, Haleon Q3 trading statement, ING Q3, Intel Q3, International Paper Q3, Juniper Networks Q3, Mastercard Q3, Merck & Co Q3, Panasonic Q2, Prudential Financial Q3, Repsol Q3, Samsung Electronics Q3, Shell Q3, Smith & Nephew Q3 trading report, Société Générale Q3, STMicroelectronics Q3, Stellantis Q3 shipments and revenues, Sumitomo Q2, TotalEnergies Q3, Uber Q3

Friday

• Kellanova special meeting for shareholders of the food manufacturing multinational to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Mars. If approved, then Kellanova expects the merger will be completed in the first half of 2025

• Canada, China, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• India: Diwali-Laxmi Pujan. Financial markets closed

• UK: Nationwide October House Price Index

• US: October employment report

• Results: AES Q3, Chevron Q3, ExxonMobil Q3, Ingersoll Rand Q3, KDDI HY, Macquarie HY, Mitsubishi HY, Mitsui & Co HY, Nomura Q2, T Rowe Price Q3

World events

Here are some other events and milestones to look out for this week.

Monday

• Iceland: 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavík, focusing on “Peace and Security in the Arctic”

• Morocco: French President Emmanuel Macron starts a state visit to the former colony, aiming to improve relations between the two countries

Tuesday

• China: Finnish president Alexander Stubb to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping in Beijing to discuss various topics, including the Ukraine war

• UK: funeral of former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond

Wednesday

• Botswana: general election

• Congo: 50th anniversary of Ali vs Foreman Rumble in the Jungle boxing match

• UK: Budget Day

Thursday

• India: Diwali, or Deepavali, the Hindu festival of lights begins

• Germany: Reformation Day

Friday

• All Saints Day, preceding All Souls Day tomorrow

Saturday

Sunday

• Italy: G7 Sustainable Urban Development ministers meeting

• Moldova: run-off election for the country’s next president

• US: Daylight saving time ends

What are you looking forward to in the next week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com, or simply reply to this email if you’re reading it in your inbox.