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The United States is predicted to have a soft landing as the economy grows and inflation returns to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent, according to a survey of economists conducted by the Financial Times.
The survey indicates that GDP growth is projected to be 2.3 percent in 2024 and 2 percent in 2025, based on median estimates from economists surveyed in the FT-Chicago Booth survey.
Unemployment is expected to reach 4.5 percent by the end of the year, slightly higher than the current rate of 4.2 percent but still historically low. The core personal expenditures index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is forecasted to decrease to 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent in July.
The survey results, released just before the Fed’s anticipated interest rate cuts, suggest that the US economy is moving towards the central bank’s desired outcome of solid growth, low inflation, and robust employment.
Dean Croushore, a former economist at the Fed’s Philadelphia Reserve Bank, commented on the positive outlook, stating, “Fundamentally, things are still pretty strong across the board.”
The survey, which polled 37 economists between September 11 and 13, revealed that the majority of respondents do not anticipate a recession in the coming years.
This optimistic outlook aligns with the Fed’s stance, as officials have emphasized their commitment to avoiding a recession as inflation stabilizes.
The survey also indicates that a widely watched recession indicator may not be accurate in this economic cycle.
The so-called Sahm Rule, which identifies a recession when the three-month average rises at least half a percentage point above its low over the past year, may not be applicable in the current situation.
Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist, expressed skepticism about the rule’s relevance, stating, “This could be the one occasion that breaks the Sahm Rule.”
The Fed has emphasized its commitment to maintaining a strong labor market, with Chair Jay Powell affirming the central bank’s dedication to supporting employment and price stability.
The Fed is expected to announce interest rate cuts next week, with predictions split between a half-point cut or a quarter-point reduction.
Most economists surveyed anticipate a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed, with some expecting a larger reduction by the end of the year.
Traders in swaps markets are currently predicting a 50 percent chance of a half-point cut next week and a full percentage point cut by the end of the year.
While the possibility of a larger rate cut exists, economists remain cautious about the potential implications of such a decision.
Overall, the economic outlook remains positive, with experts emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong labor market and stable inflation levels.
The upcoming September meeting coincides with the final stretch of the US presidential election campaign.
Both candidates have contrasting economic plans, with President Trump emphasizing tariffs and tax cuts for corporations, while Vice President Harris focuses on addressing price hikes and increasing taxes on the wealthy to fund social welfare programs.
When asked about the potential impact on inflation, the majority of economists favored Trump’s economic platform, predicting higher deficits under his administration.
Additional reporting by Eva Xiao and Radhika Rukmangadhan in New York
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