Over the past three weeks, we have seen positive year-over-year growth in both purchase application data and weekly pending contract data. Last week, there was a significant jump compared to the same time last year. However, it’s important to consider the context of the housing data, especially in October, when mortgage rates were approaching 8% last year. Let’s delve into this week’s numbers.
Weekly pending sales
Here is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data illustrating real-time demand. This data tends to be seasonal, as reflected in the chart below. It’s crucial to remember that mortgage rates were much higher at this time last year. While we are currently seeing growth compared to 2023 and 2022 data, it’s essential to keep the historical context in mind. Both 2022 and 2023 witnessed significant fluctuations in home sales levels.
Here are the weekly pending sales figures for last week over the past few years:
- 2024: 357,675
- 2023: 324,675
- 2022: 343,942
Purchase application data
The positive trend in purchase application data was interrupted as mortgage rates increased. Prior to the rate hike, we experienced six consecutive weeks of positive data, followed by one stagnant week. Last week, purchase applications declined by 7% compared to the previous week. Despite this decrease, there is still year-over-year growth, highlighting the impact of higher rates on current data.
Since mid-June, when mortgage rates began to decline, the purchase application data has shown:
- 12 positive prints
- 6 negative prints
- 1 flat print
- 3 consecutive positive year-over-year growth prints
We will continue to monitor this data to assess the impact of the recent rate increase. Historical trends indicate that higher rates can dampen demand data growth.