Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Footing part of this bill in exchange for Ukrainian support for securing its borders is one of the costs that Ghana must pay as part of its involvement in the emerging anti-Russian regional coalition that plans to wage a protracted hybrid war against Moscow’s Sahelian Alliance/Confederation allies.
Zelensky announced after a call with his Ghanaian counterpart in early July that “Ghana is ready to finance our (drone) production, and we are ready to help our partners secure their borders.” This caught many observers by surprise since Ghana has a GDP per capita that’s a little less than half of Ukraine’s. It makes more sense though when one recalls that West Africa is one of the New Cold War’s fronts. Russia supports the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation while France, the US, and Ukraine support its opponents.
The last-mentioned trilateral’s backing of terrorist-designated Tuareg separatists in Mali and similarly designated Islamic radicals there, in Burkina Faso, and Niger has thus far failed to break up this bloc. That’s not to say that this subversion doesn’t stand a chance of succeeding, just that continued Russian security assistance makes it much more difficult than they expected. As a back-up plan, they’ve therefore preemptively sought out regional bases to facilitate a protracted hybrid war, ergo Ghana’s importance.
The Wall Street Journal reported as far back as January 2024 that “The U.S. is holding preliminary talks to allow American unarmed reconnaissance drones to use airfields in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin”. Nothing has yet to tangibly come from those talks, but the latest update from two months ago in May shows that the US decided to focus its efforts on Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast). Ghana is right next door, and both border the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation, so there’s a logic to Ukraine cultivating ties with it.
Seeing as how “Ukraine Has Been Presenting Itself As A Reliable Mercenary Force Against Russia In Africa” via its involvement in Sudan and Mali, the precedent is established for it doing the same in Burkina Faso, which is the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation member that borders Ghana. An estimated 40% of Burkina Faso is already under the control of terrorist groups, some of whom are reportedly infiltrating into Ghana and the Ivory Coast, so Kiev’s quid pro quo with Accra is semi-legitimate.
Nevertheless, given the abovementioned role that Ukraine has played vis-à-vis Russia in Africa at the US’ behest, it should also be taken for granted that this semi-legitimate deal will be exploited as the cover for the West to ramp up its hybrid war against the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation. Ukraine’s speculatively forthcoming clandestine base of operations in Ghana will focus on Burkina Faso while the US’ openly planned drone base in neighboring Ivory Coast will divide its focus between there and Mali.
The US and France will “Lead From Behind” by providing back-end support for the Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Ukraine, who’ll advance their shared interests vis-à-vis the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation, thus doing the heavy lifting and bearing many of the costs. The Ivory Coast and Ghana equally fear terrorist spillovers and the scenario of Russian-inspired patriotic military coups, Ukraine has an axe to grind with Russia, while the US and France want to reverse regional multipolar trends.
This confluence of interests explains why Ghana of all countries agreed to partially finance Ukraine’s drone production since that’s one of the costs that it must pay as part of this coalition. Their deal serves as the anti-terrorist pretext for directly involving Ukrainian forces, whether conventional and/or unconventional (like GUR), in this planned hybrid war offensive against the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s southern front. Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger should thus brace for the worst.
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