Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
It was discussed in this analysis about “How A Rapprochement With Russia Helps The US Advance Its Goals Vis-à-vis China” that collaborative strategic investments in key resources post the Ukrainian Conflict, particularly in energy and critical minerals, can support the US in economic rivalry with China.
This strategy aligns with the recent National Security Strategy (NSS) that emphasizes on securing critical resource supply chains and can potentially be expanded to assist the US’ allies in advancing their objectives.
The NSS’ focus in Asia is more about economic competition with China rather than military rivalry, suggesting ways in which the US allies can aid in keeping pace with China. It even suggests cooperation on “critical minerals in Africa” to reduce reliance on China’s supply chains.
Given Russia’s abundance of critical minerals deposits and their anticipated role in the “New Détente,” these investments could involve the US’ Asian allies, potentially through the provision of sectoral secondary sanctions waivers as incentives for Russia’s compliance with a Ukrainian peace deal.
This collaboration would not only reduce dependence on China’s critical minerals supply chains but also prevent Russia from becoming overly reliant on China, benefiting both sides in their relations with China.
The resulting strategic interdependence would be mutually advantageous.
Pressures on Russia from various directions would decrease, and Russia’s national security significance would increase due to its crucial resource roles.
Russia has long sought this outcome, and it may finally be achievable.
Russia would have reason to comply with any Ukrainian peace deal brokered by the US to maintain this arrangement and avoid excessive dependence on China, while also reaping economic benefits.
The US and its Asian allies would essentially be incentivizing Russia to comply with the deal, transforming its current entente with China into one of several strategic partnerships.
Through this collaboration, the renewed Russian-US “New Détente” could reshape the global economic landscape by reducing China’s dominance, aiding the US and its Asian allies in competition with China.
Importantly, Russia would shift towards the core of the global economic structure due to the significance of its strategic resources, fulfilling its economic aspirations.
Loading recommendations…