Purchase application data
There was a notable rebound in the purchase application data last week following three consecutive weeks of declines. The year-over-year figures remained positive, with a week-over-week increase of 11% and a year-over-year increase of 13%. This index will be closely monitored from the second week of January to the first week of May, with the aim of achieving a 100% positive year-over-year trend during the warmer months. Traditionally, total volumes tend to decrease after May.
Below is the weekly purchase application data for 2025:
- 8 positive readings
- 6 negative readings
- 3 flat prints
Further insights on the reasons behind the growth in 2025 can be found in a recent article.
Total pending sales
The latest weekly total pending sales data from Altos provides valuable insights into current housing demand trends. While the total pending home sales data has slowed down due to higher rates, the impact has not been significant. Despite the rise in mortgage rates at the beginning of April, home sales have remained strong compared to the previous year.
Weekly pending sales for the last week over the past several years:
- 2025: 398,653
- 2024: 393,788
- 2023: 368,490
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2025 forecast, it was anticipated that mortgage rates would range between 5.75% and 7.25%, while the 10-year yield would fluctuate between 3.80% and 4.70%. The 10-year yield saw an increase last week, influenced by trade talks with China and positive jobless claims data.
Despite fluctuations in the 10-year yield, mortgage rates remained relatively stable. Mortgage spreads have improved on days when bond yields rise, indicating a positive trend in the market.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads have been elevated since 2022 but have shown improvement since 2023. However, recent market volatility has affected spreads negatively. The market behavior has a direct impact on mortgage rates, which could potentially see a decrease if spreads return to their normal range.
Historically, mortgage spreads should range between 1.60% and 1.80%. If spreads were to return to this range, mortgage rates could decrease significantly.
Weekly housing inventory data
One of the most positive developments in the housing market for 2024 and 2025 is the increase in inventory. The rise in inventory levels is crucial for the housing market to operate efficiently in the long term, especially as the country transitions back to normal.
- Weekly inventory change (May 3-May 9): Inventory rose from 744,225 to 755,895
- The same week last year (May 4-May 10): Inventory rose from 556,291 to 568,557
- All-time inventory bottom in 2022: 240,497
- 2025 inventory peak: 755,895
- Active listings in the same week in 2015: 1,109,727
New listings data
Last week, over 80,000 new listings were recorded, achieving a milestone that had been predicted but not reached in the past two years. The growth in new listings data reflects the market’s attempt to return to normalcy, with seasonal peaks typically ranging between 80,000 and 110,000 per week.
Weekly national new listing data for the past few years:
- 2025: 80,338
- 2024: 68,793
- 2023: 61,911
Price-cut percentage
Approximately one-third of homes experience price reductions in a typical year, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. The rise in price reductions this year compared to last year emphasizes the cautious growth forecast for 2025.
Summary of price cuts from previous weeks over the last few years:
- 2025: 36.7%
- 2024: 33%
- 2023: 29%
The week ahead: China trade news, inflation week, housing starts and more
The upcoming week will be significant, with updates expected on trade talks with China, speeches by Federal Reserve Presidents, inflation data, housing starts, and jobless claims. The focus will be on how the bond and stock markets respond to trade news, as well as the continuation of the positive year-over-year trend in purchase application data.
Stay tuned for updates on market trends and developments in the coming week.