Insights on New Listings Data
Over the past two years, we have witnessed historically low periods for new home listings, with concerns arising as a significant percentage of home sellers are also looking to purchase homes. Despite forecasting around 80,000 new listings per week during peak periods last year, we fell short of that goal, only reaching 75,000. However, this year has seen weeks where we exceeded 80,000 listings, with hopes of more surpassing this threshold before the seasonal decline sets in.
It is crucial to avoid an early downtrend and prevent more sellers from exiting the market, as seen in the second half of 2022. Traditionally, seasonal peaks for new listings have ranged from 80,000 to 110,000 per week, as observed from 2013 to 2019. During the housing bubble crash years, new listings were soaring between 250,000 and 400,000 per week.
Last week’s new listings data for the past two years:
- 2025: 73,433
- 2024: 72,012
Weekly Housing Inventory Update
The most significant development in the housing market has been the growth of inventory in 2024 and 2025. This growth has been a positive shift after previously describing the market as unhealthy. While the inventory growth has been slow recently, there are expectations for it to pick up in the coming weeks.
Recent weekly inventory changes:
- May 30-June 6: Inventory rose from 803,519 to 808,564
- Same week last year: Inventory rose from 604,922 to 611,543
Analysis of Price-Cut Percentage
Price reductions are a common occurrence in the housing market, with about one-third of homes experiencing them. Forecasting a modest increase in home prices for 2025, it is essential to consider the dynamics of the market, especially in relation to inventory levels and mortgage rates.
Recent data shows a rise in price reductions compared to last year, reinforcing a cautious growth forecast for 2025.
Insights on 10-Year Yield and Mortgage Rates
Forecasting ranges for mortgage rates and the 10-year yield for 2025, recent market volatility has been influenced by various factors. Recent fluctuations in the 10-year yield and mortgage rates have been impacted by economic reports and geopolitical events.
Recent mortgage rate movements and market reactions are indicative of the ongoing market dynamics.
Analysis of Mortgage Spreads
Monitoring mortgage spreads is crucial for understanding market conditions, with recent improvements seen since the peak in 2023. The relationship between spreads, the 10-year yield, and mortgage rates plays a significant role in market fluctuations.
Historical trends in mortgage spreads provide insights into potential movements in mortgage rates.
Insights on Purchase Application Data
Recent trends in purchase applications highlight positive year-over-year growth, with consistent improvements seen in recent weeks. Understanding the factors influencing purchase applications is essential for predicting market trends.
Weekly data for 2025 shows a mix of positive and negative readings, indicating a dynamic market environment.
Total Pending Sales Overview
Insights from total pending sales data offer valuable information on housing demand trends. Despite elevated rates in 2025, total pending home sales have remained steady, indicating resilience in the market.
Weekly pending sales data for the past two years:
- 2025: 402,833
- 2024: 393,632
Weekly Pending Sales Analysis
Weekly pending home sales data provides insights into short-term market trends, with considerations for seasonal variations and external factors. Monitoring year-over-year growth is essential for understanding market dynamics.
Weekly pending sales data for the past two years:
- 2025: 69,363
- 2024: 67,649
Looking Ahead: Inflation and Bond Auctions
Anticipating inflation reports and bond auctions in the upcoming week, market volatility remains a key factor to watch. External events and economic data will continue to influence market movements, requiring a strategic approach to navigating the market landscape.
Stay informed on market developments and upcoming data releases to make well-informed decisions in the dynamic housing market environment.
As market conditions evolve, it is essential to stay updated on inflation, labor data, and other key indicators that shape the future of the housing market. With ongoing uncertainties and potential market shifts, proactive monitoring and analysis are crucial for making informed decisions.