Ripple is showing signs of forming strong divergences compared to other large-cap cryptocurrencies.
According to a recent report from Blockworks, XRP has one of the most promising setups in terms of on-chain fundamentals for Q2. Despite this strength, the price performance has not reflected it, leading to a fundamental-technical discrepancy that could impact XRP’s Q3 setup.
The positive trend in XRP was mainly driven by the increase in stablecoins and tokenization, with the total supply rising by 195.4% to $825.5 million. Additionally, tokenized RWA value surged by 102.5% to $4.46 billion. XRP ETPs also saw a significant influx of $253.6 million, contributing to the positive momentum.
Despite the growth in liquidity, it has not translated into network utility.
The report highlighted a 26.6% decrease in XRP’s total payment volume compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, transaction numbers, active addresses, and DEX volume have all seen a decline, despite the low cost per transaction averaging at 0.00024 USD.
This suggests that the market has undervalued XRP’s potential, leading to a 22% decline in the asset quarter over quarter. The question now is whether this pattern will repeat in Q3, potentially causing Ripple [XRP] to underperform similarly to Q2.
XRP’s Q3 setup resembling Q2
Ripple’s RLUSD is bridging the gap between XRPL’s Q2 and Q3 performance.
According to DeFiLlama, RLUSD’s market cap has grown by almost 40%, reaching nearly 90% of XRPL’s stablecoin market cap with a total supply exceeding $880 million. RLUSD tokens account for almost 62% of tokenized assets in the XRP Ledger, which have increased by around 25% in the third quarter, contributing to the total value of RWA.
While RLUSD appears to be driving growth for XRPL, the actual usage of the blockchain remains lower than in the previous quarter. Current total transactions in Q3 stand at 87 million, significantly lower than the 222 million recorded in Q2.
While stablecoin liquidity and tokenization are thriving, network activity is lagging, creating a mixed scenario reminiscent of XRP’s Q2 performance. Consequently, the token is facing a similar technical performance in Q3.
The bearish trend is evident in XRP’s price movement, with the token dropping over 3.7% to a new quarter-low of $0.98 at the time of writing. The disconnect between fundamentals and technicals indicates that the market is overlooking Ripple’s true value.
If this trend persists throughout Q3, XRP could be headed for another challenging quarter, adding pressure to its post-election gains.
Final Summary
- XRP’s stablecoins, RWAs, and ETP are growing, but network activity remains low.
- RLUSD and tokenization are growing in the third quarter, but transaction volumes remain below their second-quarter levels.