Yes, mortgage interest rates are up today, but only by a little. If anything, it’s surprising that they aren’t higher, given the spooky inflation report that dropped yesterday.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.32% APR, according to rates provided to BW by Zillow. This is two basis points higher than yesterday but five basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
In the coming days, the direction of mortgage rates will depend a lot on oil price fluctuations (which affect rates in the short term) and whether markets think the Fed will raise borrowing rates again later this month (which has long-term implications). For more on this, read our analysis below.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates, 10/15/26
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
Inflation has played a key role in driving up mortgage rates over the past several months, as the Iran war intensified price pressures. The conflict directly affects a key shipping route and oil production, and that indirectly affects the prices of all sorts of goods.
That kind of inflationary environment isn’t great for bonds, and the interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages are benchmarked to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. So where bond yields go, mortgage rates go, too. (For more, here’s a much deeper dive on the bond market as it pertains to mortgage rates.)
Persistent inflation also spells trouble for the Federal Reserve. Price stability is half of the Fed’s dual mandate (maximum employment is the other half), and inflation has been running above the central bankers’ 2% target since 2021. With the conflict in Iran making already-bad inflation worse, the Fed shifted into rate-hiking mode last month.
Raising the federal funds rate, which is the short-term borrowing rate the bankers set, is the Fed’s main tool for fighting inflation. Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, changes to the funds rate ripple out through the entire economy. So a rate hike from the Federal Reserve — or even markets having relative certainty that a hike is coming — can put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Why do markets think a rate hike could come this month? The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September Consumer Price Index, a major inflation report, yesterday. It showed that inflation rose 3.7% last month, largely driven by rising fuel costs.
In the hours following the report drop, futures traders initially revised their projections in favor of another rate hike on Oct. 28. Today, expectations are cooler, with traders now expecting that central bankers will probably vote to hold rates steady.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously expressed his wish that investors would interpret data themselves, instead of dissecting central bankers’ public statements for Easter eggs about how they’ll vote.
For now, markets are still pretty much hanging on their every word. Any time a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee publicly voices an opinion about inflation, it has the potential to shift mortgage rates.
Explore mortgages today and get started on your homeownership goals
Get personalized rates. Your lender matches are just a few questions away.
🔁 Should I refinance?
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
Consider exploring a refinance if your current rate is at or above 7.82%, as rates are currently favorable for refinancing. However, this may not apply to many borrowers. When considering a refinance, think about your goals – whether you want to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term, or access home equity. Use tools like BW’s refinance calculator to estimate potential savings and break-even points.
When it comes to shopping for a home, focus on whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage at current rates rather than waiting for potentially lower rates in the future. Getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and determining a manageable monthly payment are crucial steps. Strengthen your buyer profile by paying down debts and saving for a down payment.
If you have a favorable mortgage rate quote, consider locking it in to protect against potential rate increases during the loan processing period. Take advantage of float-down options if offered by your lender to benefit from a lower rate if the market shifts. Remember that rates can fluctuate frequently, so committing to a deal you’re happy with is a wise choice.
The rate you see advertised online is often a sample rate for borrowers with excellent credit, significant down payments, and mortgage points. The quote you receive may differ based on your individual financial situation and creditworthiness. The sentence is not provided. Please provide the sentence that needs to be rewritten.