As the new trading week begins, Bitcoin is following a clear roadmap outlined by DeFi researcher and analyst, Sherlockwhale. Through an analysis of historical data spanning 450 weeks, Sherlockwhale has identified four specific price levels that are likely to influence market direction. This framework focuses on how Bitcoin closes at the beginning and middle of the week.
Bitcoin’s Weekly Structure Sets The Stage
Last week, Bitcoin closed near $76,000, showing a 7.2% increase from the opening price on Monday. Despite this upward trend, a closer look at the weekly candle reveals a more cautious narrative. The price reached a high of $78,333 before retracting, experiencing a 1.79% decline on Saturday and a small recovery on Sunday. By the end of the week, Bitcoin had settled around 70% of its total range.
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The significance of this closing level lies in the fact that while the price remained in the upper range, it failed to sustain near the peak, indicating a visible rejection. Historical patterns analyzed by Sherlockwhale suggest that when Bitcoin surpasses the previous week’s high but closes in this manner, the following week tends to end lower about 62% of the time.
In this context, four key price levels—$79,800, $79,116, $74,480, and $69,861—emerge as crucial points for the week’s outlook. These levels are pivotal in determining how the price behaves at key checkpoints, especially during Monday and Wednesday closures.
The Four Bitcoin Price Levels That Define the Week
At the upper end, $79,800 is a significant threshold, positioned approximately 5% above the weekly open. Historical data referenced by Sherlockwhale indicates that when Monday closes above this level, the week concludes positively nearly 89.6% of the time, rising to 95.5% in data analyzed since 2021. Just below, $79,116 acts as confirmation that Bitcoin is maintaining its position above resistance.
Midweek performance further refines the forecast. If Bitcoin remains more than 3% above Monday’s open by Wednesday, historical data from 141 instances suggests an 86% probability of a positive weekly close. With gains exceeding 5% by that point, the likelihood increases to 91.4% based on 93 occurrences.
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On the downside, $74,480 plays a critical role. A Monday closure below this level, about 2% below the open, indicates a possible false move in the previous rally. Should losses extend beyond 2% by Wednesday, the week typically ends in negative territory around 80% of the time, with recent data showing no exceptions under similar circumstances.
Lastly, $69,861, slightly below the previous low of $70,567, represents a complete sweep of the weekly range. Interestingly, historical data suggests that such movements often precede a rebound, with the rest of the week turning positive in approximately 81.8% of cases. Sherlockwhale emphasizes that these four levels offer a structured lens through which the week’s price action can be interpreted.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com