Can ASTER surge 30% in December? What the data shows

Aster DEX experienced a decline of more than 5% despite a bullish community sentiment of over 75%, according to data collected from over 60,000 participants on CoinMarketCap. The altcoin managed to reclaim the $1 price level at the time of writing but was trading sideways. The excitement surrounding the decentralized exchange had waned, in line with the broader crypto market trends. Surprisingly, there seemed to be a historical pattern alignment in play, despite the challenging factors within the chain.

Could ASTER see a 30% surge in December?

The 4-hour chart indicated a period of consolidation following a correction from the recent rally that pushed the price to $1.40. The choppy price action suggested ongoing accumulation of the altcoin. This accumulation phase mirrored the movement of the altcoin’s On Balance Volume (OBV) from the first week of November. The focus for Aster [ASTER] was now on the $1.50 zone, similar to when the OBV moved sideways before breaking out on November 14th. However, for the price to surge, it needed to break above the descending trendline just as it did during the previous sideways movement.

Source: TradingView

Notably, there were signs of bullish momentum in the MACD indicator, with faintly green signal lines indicating buyer interest gradually building up. However, the buyers had not yet fully taken control of the price, as indicated by the small bars and signal lines still below.

While a potential 30%+ gain was on the horizon, declining on-chain activity and potential sell pressure from the upcoming unlock event could pose challenges to such a rally.

Comparing ASTER’s activity with Hyperliquid

According to CoinMarketCap data, ASTER’s daily trading volume had increased by 10%, outperforming Hyperliquid [HYPE]. ASTER recorded a volume of $5.467 billion compared to HYPE’s $4.605 billion, showcasing strength against its competitor despite launching later. However, other chain metrics were on the decline, with DEX and perp volumes falling below their records from September to early November. Additionally, fees saw a significant drop to approximately $1.18 million, and the Total Value Locked (TVL) plummeted by almost 50% from $2.48 billion to $1.32 billion.

Source: X

These bearish factors could potentially derail the anticipated 30% rally, especially when market conditions shift. However, these were not the only obstacles in the way.

Anticipating sell pressure from token unlocks

December could witness another wave of sell pressure in the crypto markets due to significant token unlocks. ASTER and Sui Network [SUI] were leading with the largest unlocks exceeding $86 million. Around 3.89% of ASTER’s market cap would be unlocked, equivalent to 78.41 million tokens. Despite this, more than 55% of tokens were still locked, with 7% awaiting a designated unlocking period.

Source: Tokenomist

This potential increase in supply-driven sell pressure could impede the expected rally in ASTER’s price.

Key Points

• The technical analysis suggests a possible 30% surge in ASTER’s price.
• Chain activity and the upcoming token unlocks pose challenges to this potential rally.