Although US Manufacturing PMIs showed improvement in August (following a decline in July), the ‘hard’ data for US Manufacturing for July was anticipated to display another decrease, continuing the trend from June’s significant 4.8% MoM drop post-tariff-front-running.
The headline factory orders decreased by 1.3% MoM (as predicted), reflecting the aftermath of the extensive tariff-front-running activity in May, which pulled orders down to just a 1.6% YoY increase…
Source: Bloomberg
It is worth noting that the surge of 8.3% in May due to tariff-front-running was the second largest monthly increase in 69 years.
Core orders (excluding Transports) saw a 0.6% MoM rise (marking the third consecutive monthly increase)
Source: Bloomberg
Lastly, there is some hope in the uptick of ‘soft’ Manufacturing data, hinting at a potential silver lining in the August factory data.
Source: Bloomberg
Regardless, The Fed will convene before the release of the next report.
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